New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on the verge of a thumping victory in the Delhi Legislative Assembly elections, which signifies a dramatic change in the Delhi political map. As vote counting progresses, early trends indicate a substantial defeat for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had dominated the last two elections. The sharp change in voters’ political attitude may be explained by a number of factors that have been damaging the popular base of AAP since several years ago.
Key Factors Behind AAP’s Decline
1. Anti-Incumbency Sentiment
AAP’s landslide victories in 2015 and 2020 were fueled by ambitious reforms in health, education, and public utilities. Free water and electricity subsidies earned the party widespread public approval, allowing it to hold off BJP’s advances in previous elections. However, as the years passed, unfulfilled promises and governance issues began to weigh on public perception.
One of the most striking problems was the worsening air quality of Delhi, which still went largely unmitigated. Although the AAP government blamed the BJP at the Centre for hindering the work of the AAP, the public has lost faith in this line of defence. Having ruled for a decade, the story of being throttled by the central authority no longer seemed convincing to the citizenry. On the other hand, BJP’s promise of a “a double-engine government” (a single-party-governed both, at Centre and state level) proved successful, i.e., provided voters with a new an alternative road to better governance.
2. ‘Sheesh Mahal’ Controversy
The campaign for the election reached a major turning point when the BJP initiated a controversy around the expensive remodeling of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s official bunglow, the Sheesh Mahal . According to reports of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG), the cost of renovation had increased by a very large amount from an estimated ₹7.91 crore to ₹33.66 crore.
BJP has been using this controversy as the base for their campaign, presenting Kejriwal as hypocrite—speaking of moderation while living in a lavish life. AAP attempted to counter these attacks by pointing to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official residence, calling it the “Raj Mahal.”. However, BJP’s aggressive campaigning on the issue struck a chord with voters, particularly given AAP’s initial promise of clean and transparent governance.
3. Liquor Policy Scandal and Corruption Allegations
One of the most serious setbacks to AAP’s credibility was the abandoned liquor policy which has been the focus of a sprawling corruption investigation. The policy, which introduced aggressive discounts such as “Buy 1 Get 1 Free” on liquor, was framed by the BJP as an attempt to “turn Delhi into a city of drunkards.”. The ensuing scandal resulted in a chain of high-profile arrests that severely debilitated AAP leadership.
Top AAP leaders, comprising of former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Singh, were arrested on the ground of alleged corruption, etc. The most destructive event occurred after Arvind Kejriwal, himself, was incarcerated for 5 months prior to being released. These legal issues put the government on the defensive during the party’s 3rd term, deflecting attention from plans to govern and develop.
BJP’s Road to Victory
The BJP’s relentless focus on AAP’s governance failures, coupled with its well-orchestrated campaign on issues like corruption and mismanagement, played a crucial role in turning the tide. The party’s “double-engine” governance pitch resonated with voters frustrated by Delhi’s administrative deadlock. In addition, BJP effectively anchored its base among its traditional voters and penetrated among the urban middle class and first-time voters.
Furthermore, the BJP’s efficient organisational structure and well-coordinated electoral approach allowed the BJP to maintain its influence over Delhi’s political sphere. Following early trends that hinted at a clear victory, both the party, on one hand, and AAP on the other will share the power in the Delhi Assembly for the first time in decades, a bitter defeat to AAP.
Conclusion
AAP’s loss in the 2025 Delhi election is due to a mix of anti-incumbency, corruption charges, and poor governance. The once-dominant party, which positioned itself as a people’s movement, struggled to maintain its appeal after ten years in power. In the meantime, the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) has taken advantage of the dissatisfaction of the public and presented itself as the opposition, winning what looks to be a historic result.
When Delhi prepares for a political change, the outcome is a clear illustration of the very fragility of electoral fortunes, especially, in the changing political context. The next few days will be significant for AAP, both in terms of its own regrouping and strategy contemplation in response to a resurrected BJP.
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